Original title: Is Intelligent Networking a New Opportunity in the Cold Winter?
Source: Daily Economic News
Every reporter Sun Tongtong
The domestic auto market has not come out of the "cold winter."
Data show that from January to October this year, China's automobile production and sales completed 20.444 million and 20.652 million, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% and 9.7%, and the decline in production and sales narrowed by 1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively from January to September.
Although the decline in automobile production and sales has gradually narrowed, the overall recovery of the automobile market is still limited due to the lack of consumer demand in the domestic market, the pressure of technological upgrades brought by the “National Six” emission standards, and the sharp decline in new energy subsidies. .
The continuous "cold winter" has brought the automotive industry back to a rational stage of development, and a new round of industrial adjustment is entering the deep water area. How to seek new growth opportunities in the "new normal" of the automobile market has become a question for major auto companies to consider.
It is worth noting that with the deepening of the "new four modernizations" trend, the intelligent network connection has gradually become the protagonist of the major car companies. Many auto manufacturers are very optimistic about the prospect of the intelligent networking field, seeing it as the "life-saving straw" in the "cold winter", and placing intelligent networking in the first place for the future development of enterprises.
E.g. Changan Automobile The “Beidou Tianshu Plan”, which has comprehensively transitioned to intelligence, was released. By 2020, Changan Automobile will no longer produce non-connected new cars, and will realize 100% of all new cars connected to the Internet and 100% equipped with driver assistance systems. In addition, BYD Independent car companies such as Roewe, Geely, etc. have also accelerated the launch of their latest intelligent connected models. New car-making forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Weimar also entered the auto industry with high intelligence.
Looking at the current intelligent connected models on the market, most of them are equipped with auto-assisted driving functions and on-board operating systems that can realize human-computer interaction.
For car companies, autonomous driving is a trillion-level market that needs to be developed, and no one wants to miss this potential market. Global market research agency IHS Market predicts that global self-driving car sales will reach 600,000 in 2025 and 21 million in 2035. It is expected that the penetration rate of L1 / L2 autonomous driving will reach 40% by 2020, and L3, The penetration rate of L4 / L5 autonomous driving is expected to reach 15% and 5%, respectively. As 5G promotes the gradual landing of L4 and L5 autonomous driving, the scale of domestic autonomous driving travel service revenue is expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2030.
The in-vehicle operating system has also become standard for almost all current models. Among them, BAT (Baidu, Ali, and Tencent) has shown enthusiasm different from ordinary people. Car companies are also busy working with BAT to create smarter vehicle-machine systems. Baidu has established a small-scale on-board OS for the car networking system with DuerOS as the technical base; Zebra invested by Ali and SAIC has built a "Zebra Wisdom" based on the AliOS system; Tencent and Changan jointly established a "Industry Car Union".
Not only at home, but also when participating in global competition, intelligent networking has also become a core selling point of some independent brands. For example, SAIC successfully opened the Thai market of "Japanese cars in the world" with its independently developed i-Smart intelligent driving system. In June this year, the MG Hector, also equipped with the i-Smart system, was launched in India, becoming the first Internet car in the Indian market. As of the end of October, sales of MG Hector had exceeded 10,000 units, and India also became SAIC ’s seventh “10,000-unit” overseas market.
However, car companies that are keen on the construction of intelligent networking must also maintain a sense of crisis at all times. Intelligent networking will not "rescue" all automobile companies "landing."
On the one hand, at present, the autonomous driving technology that can achieve mass production basically stays at the L2 level, and very few can achieve the L3 level. As for the autonomous driving at the higher levels of L4 and L5, there are still very complicated difficulties to be overcome, far from Reached the stage of mass production.
In recent years, the self-driving cars of Uber, Google, Tesla and other global well-known car companies have frequently experienced accidents, which has also made the safety of self-driving cars questioned. As Cheng Bo, dean of the Suzhou Automotive Research Institute at Tsinghua University, said, although the rapid development of smart cars has entered the world, the safety, reliability and regulatory system still need to be strengthened.
In addition to safety, the commercialization of high-level autonomous driving is also a major difficulty. From the current point of view, whether it is the sensor itself or the car chip supporting the sensor, there are few solutions that can have both cost and computing power advantages.
On the other hand, the on-board operating systems on the market are currently in a dilemma of homogeneity. Although the names of the vehicle and engine systems installed by various auto companies are different, the functions are very similar, and most of them include the following functions: speech recognition, voice interaction, cloud services, OTA (over-the-air download technology) upgrade, real-time map navigation, group travel, mass Music library and social functions, etc.
As the speed of software iterations increases, innovators can only lead for up to a few months, and then will be "imitation" by competitors and quickly spread throughout the industry.
From this point of view, although the intelligent network connection is the general trend of the future development of the automotive industry, it may not be able to become the equipment for all car companies to "winter". Under the new development trend, car companies should think about how to grasp the general trend, master core technologies, get rid of the homogeneous competition predicament, and form differentiated competitive advantages, in order to usher in new development opportunities in the new track.
Editor-in-chief: Zhao Huifang